AnalysisVoters in Legislative Council seats of Hobart, Prosser and Elwick to go to the polls in Tasmania's own 'Super Saturday'
By Adam HolmesTasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has managed to navigate the first challenge since last month's state election: getting enough votes in the lower house to guarantee his minority government can get started.
His agreements with three Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) MPs and two progressive independents give him 19 out of 35 votes for supply and confidence.
But before that even happens, voters could throw another spanner in the works for his legislative agenda.
Three upper house seats are currently vacant: Hobart, Prosser and Elwick.
This Saturday, voters in those seats will decide who fills them.
And much like the lower house, the upper house – the 'house of review' – is finely balanced.
With 12 seats filled, the Liberal Party has three, Labor has three, and there are six independents – three considered conservative-leaning, three progressive-leaning.
Who fills the remaining three – for a total of 15 – will be crucial for what kind of legislation the Liberal government, or even Labor and the crossbench, can pass.
Hobart – a progressive squeeze
Hobart's inner suburbs have been increasingly voting progressively at recent state and federal elections.
The retirement of incumbent Rob Valentine has allowed the Greens a clear run – and other than perhaps Bob Brown himself, the party has the highest profile candidate possible: former leader Cassy O'Connor.
She appears to be the frontrunner, and would give the Greens their first seat in Tasmania's upper house.
But there's still a range of unknowns.
Hobart councillor John Kelly polled well in recent council elections, almost toppling the mayor. As a high profile businessman, he could fit into the 'conservative independent' category – and attract Liberal voters, with the party not running a candidate.
Labor also has a strong candidate: 2023 Tasmanian of the Year, John Kamara. Whether these preferences flow to Ms O'Connor will be closely watched.
Independent Charlie Burton is well-known in the community, including for his work with the Tasmanian Council of Social Service. He has the endorsement of Mr Valentine.
It could depend on how strong Ms O'Connor's first preferences are – and whether other progressively-minded voters can get her over the line.
Prosser – Labor and Liberals sense opportunity
The upper house is traditionally seen as Tasmania's 'independent' house of review – but that has been changing over time, and in the last term of parliament, Labor and the Liberals had a combined majority.
They used this majority to vote together on legislation on several occasions.
The value that Labor and the Liberals place on upper house seats is clear to see in Prosser.
Liberal Jane Howlett's shift to the lower house has left the seat vacant – and the Liberals are desperate to hold onto it.
That's reflected in the party's selection of Sorell mayor Kerry Vincent as candidate – someone who would have strong appeal in the Sorell population base, but could also attract support from the seat's rural areas.
The Liberals saw a drop in their support at the state election – one of the key variables facing Mr Vincent.
Labor has also gone 'high profile', picking former party leader Bryan Green, who has already been campaigning for five months. His previous time in politics was a rollercoaster ride, but should help to firm up Labor votes in strongholds north of Hobart.
The relatively strong major party candidates could pose a challenge for independents and minor parties – including Pam Sharpe, Kelly Spaulding and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Phillip Bigg.
Elwick – Labor's loss an independent's gain?
On paper, Elwick has all the appearances of being Labor heartland, centred on working class Glenorchy and surrounds in northern Hobart.
The decision of Labor's Josh Willie to switch to the lower house has left it vacant – and may end up costing the party a number in parliament.
Glenorchy mayor Bec Thomas is running as an independent, and as election analyst Kevin Bonham describes Elwick: "either the Labor candidate wins, or the local mayor wins".
While Glenorchy council has caused some consternation in recent years – particularly around the closure of its swimming pool – Ms Thomas stands a strong chance. She may end up being a more 'conservative' independent, but that remains to be seen.
Labor's candidate is electrician Tessa McLaughlin, who has been highlighting her background working in traditionally male-dominated industries, as a "blue collar" woman. Mr Willie is trying his hardest to use his profile to give her a boost.
Independent Fabiano Cangelosi – a criminal law barrister who expressed an interest in running for Labor before opting to run as an independent – has been campaigning quite energetically, including with some interesting social media videos, and potentially more election posters than any other candidate.
The Greens candidate is Janet Shelley, who should help to give a clearer picture of the party's support in Hobart's northern suburbs.
What's at stake for Jeremy Rockliff's government
If the three potential frontrunners win – the Greens in Hobart, Liberals in Prosser and independent Bec Thomas in Elwick – it wouldn't be the worst result for Mr Rockliff.
Labor and the Liberals would have lost their combined upper house majority, but it might have a slightly more conservative tinge to it – depending on where Ms Thomas lands on the political compass.
But in the last term of parliament, all independents – whether progressive or conservative – have shown a willingness for far more transparency and accountability in Tasmania. They are not as beholden to party interests.
With an independent-and-Greens majority in the upper house – and a balance of power situation in the lower house – it could force the government to negotiate deeper with the crossbench on legislation.
And Labor and the crossbench could pass legislation as a joint force.
There's also the ever-present question of the Macquarie Point stadium which will need to pass both houses of parliament – likely with the numbers determined by these three elections. Those votes could happen next year.
Should Labor remain opposed, the Liberals would need the votes of the JLN and independent David O'Byrne in the lower house, and then four independents in the upper house – including convincing several from the state's north.
The Hobart, Prosser and Elwick elections take place this Saturday.
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