Donald Trump and Joe Biden are now their parties' presumptive nominees. What does that mean and what happens next?
By Audrey CourtyUS presidential primaries are being held in five more states — Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio — but the results are of little consequence in the race for the White House.
Both incumbent President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump have already clinched more than enough delegates to be considered their parties' presumptive nominees for the 2024 presidential election.
It was a foreseeable outcome. Biden faced token opposition in the Democratic primaries, while none of the high-profile Republicans who ran against Trump managed to knock him off course.
Yet, how is it that we're not even halfway through the primary season and we already know who is going to win the party nominations?
Here is a look at how the American primaries work, and what still needs to happen before Biden and Trump can go head-to-head in a rematch of the 2020 election.
If you want to skip the process and jump straight to what comes next, tap here.
What are presidential primaries?
They are mini elections that take place in US states, and some territories, to help select the candidate from a political party who will run in the presidential election.
But two broadly different processes are used depending on the rules set by the Republicans and Democrats in each of the 50 states and five territories.
- 1.The simplest method and the most popular one is a government-run primary in which voters cast a secret ballot in a polling booth or via mail.
- 2.The other method used is a party-run caucus, which is a meeting between party members. How votes are cast vary from raising hands to clustering in groups.
Voting in the US is not compulsory and the rules around who can vote in the primaries and caucuses vary again based on the state and political party.
Those that hold an "open" primary or caucus allow anyone to take part, regardless of party affiliation (e.g., a Republican can vote in a Democrat primary).
Meanwhile, those that hold a "closed" primary or caucus only allow voters registered with that party to participate.
All of these elections unfold on a staggered schedule, with Iowa and New Hampshire usually kicking off the season in January.
Voting then stretches until early June, when the overseas territories of Guam and the Virgin Islands hold their caucuses.
How does a candidate win their party's nomination?
Like other aspects of US politics, the process is far from straight-forward.
Although Americans vote for their preferred presidential candidate, it's not necessarily the one with a majority of total votes who wins the party nomination.
It's actually the candidate who accumulates a majority of delegates who ultimately advances to the presidential election in November.
So what are delegates? They are actual people who are elected to represent their state or community at their party's national convention later in the year.
And they are the ones who will actually choose the presidential nominees.
Candidates win these delegates based on their performance in the state primaries and caucuses underway right now.
But, yet again, state political parties have different approaches in determining exactly how delegates are allocated to candidates.
Some allocate delegates proportionally to the number of votes they received, while others allocate all of the delegates at stake to the candidate with the most votes.
There are also those who use a hybrid system and more complicated formulas.
Ultimately, though, the aim is the same for every Democratic and Republican candidate: to claim the majority of their party's delegates through votes.
What are the total counts so far?
After a round of low-profile primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington last week, Biden and Trump clinched more than enough delegates to win the presidential nominations.
For Democrats, that number this year was 1,968. On the Republican side, it was 1,215 because they had a smaller group of delegates across the country.
LoadingExceeding the delegate thresholds has earned Biden and Trump the title of "presumptive nominee".
Barring unforeseen circumstances, this means the two presidents are headed for a rematch in this year's general election.
They were able to gain a majority early in the season after they outperformed their opposition in larger states that were worth more delegates than others.
For example, on March 5 or "Super Tuesday", 15 US states and one territory went to the polls, comprising about 36 per cent of all the delegates that could be awarded from each party.
Still, the remaining primaries and caucuses will go ahead as planned. With more than 30 states and territories having voted so far, there are still some 25 more to go.
Do the remaining primaries even matter?
Although they no longer matter for choosing the presidential nominees, their results could shed light on the levels of public support for the candidates.
Trump and Biden have been focused on the general election for weeks, aiming their campaigns lately on states that could be competitive in November rather than just those holding primaries and caucuses.
LoadingBoth candidates easily won Tuesday's primaries in Ohio, while Trump also won Florida's Republican primary.
There was no contest for Biden to win in Florida as the state's Democrats cancelled their primary and opted to award all 224 of their delegates to him in a move that has precedence for an incumbent president.
Trump and Biden are also expected to easily win Tuesday's primaries in Arizona and Kansas, banking more support after becoming their parties' presumptive nominees.
Neither Biden nor Trump faced strong challenges in these latest contests.
Yet, days before, Trump rallied in the formerly safe Republican seat of Ohio, which has shown signs it could become competitive again.
Last year, Ohio residents overwhelmingly voted to protect abortion rights in their constitution and voted to legalise marijuana.
Biden, meanwhile, is visiting Nevada and Arizona — two states that were among the closest in the 2020 election and remain top priorities for the presidential campaign.
When do presumptive nominees become official?
Biden and Trump can't officially become the presidential nominees until they win the delegate vote at the nominating conventions.
The national Republican convention will be held in July, while the Democratic one will take place in August.
These are big political events where the thousands of delegates from each party gather to select their nominee in what is mostly a symbolic procedure.
Decades ago, the eventual nominees weren't known until delegates and party bosses hashed things out themselves at the conventions.
Nowadays, the outcome is usually made clear during the primary season, but the conventions still play a key roll in kicking off the presidential campaign.
In front of a prime-time national television audience, each party will officially nominate its joint presidential and vice presidential ticket through an hours-long state-by-state delegate roll call.
This will give each party the opportunity to try to make their candidate more appealing to the broader electorate, with party leaders and other members delivering speeches.
It's also where parties will formally adopt the policy platform they will run on for the general election in November.
When was the last rematch of a presidential race?
The last presidential rematch came in 1956, when Republican president Dwight D. Eisenhower again defeated Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic opponent he had faced four years prior.
Meanwhile, Grover Cleveland is the only president in US history to serve two non-consecutive terms in 1884 and 1892.
The Democrat successfully pulled off what Trump is now attempting — winning back the White House from the opponent who took it from him.
Both Trump and Biden are running on their records in office and casting the other as a threat to America.
But, in spite of their tough talk, the road ahead will not be easy for either presumptive nominee.
Trump is facing 91 felony counts in four criminal cases, which involve his handling of classified documents and his attempt to overturn the 2020 election.
He's also facing increasingly pointed questions about his policy plans and relationships with foreign dictators.
Biden, who would be 86 years old at the end of his next term, is trying to reassure voters that he's still physically and mentally fit for the country's top job.
And he's now having to deal with growing pressure within his own party to reign in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.